Interest rates also closed. Contracts for 2024 rose from 13.55% p.a. to 13.54%
The Stock Exchange remained above 113.2 thousand points throughout Tuesday (31) and closed at a high of 1.03%. The Ibovespa ended the session at 113,430 points, recovering part of the 1.63% drop recorded last Friday (27th) and ending January with an accumulated 3.6%.
The spot commercial dollar closed 0.75% against the real at R$5.0750, after data showed a slowdown in labor costs in the United States. The news reinforces the expectation that the pace of interest rate increases will slow there.
In January, the US currency accumulated a decline of 3.82%, after two consecutive months of gains. The appreciation of the real in the period reflects the reopening of China, which made emerging currencies more attractive, and the higher interest rates paid by Brazil than by developed countries.
“Political noises are quieter. There is discussion of tax reform, there is an inflation target, but nothing new in a tone that greatly displeases the market.
We are seeing improvement on the assets side. We have foreign flows entering the Stock Exchange and the mood has improved a bit abroad, which helps here,” says Rodrigo Marcatti, CEO of Veedha Investimentos.
Interest rates also closed. Contracts for 2024 rose from 13.55% per annum to 13.54%. When it was due in 2025, the rate rose from 12.87% to 12.84%. For 2027, interest rates dropped from 12.85% to 12.83%.
This Wednesday (1st) the Central Bank of Brazil and the Federal Reserve (United States BC) announce their interest rate decisions.
On the eve of the first “Super Wednesday” of this year, the market remains attentive to economic data that may affect expectations of inflation and interest rates.
In the US, specialists are betting on an increase of 0.25 percentage points in the interest rate to control inflation. This will be the smallest readjustment in ten months.
Major US stock indexes closed higher on Tuesday, with investors optimistic about the Fed’s aggressive approach to combating inflation.
The S&P 500 rose by 1.46% to 4,076.60 points. The Nasdaq technology index rose 1.68% to 11,584.55 points. The Dow Jones rose by 1.09% to 34,086.04 points.
Around here, the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) should keep the Selic at 13.75% per annum, despite pressure from the Lula government. In more than one interview, the President of the Republic criticized the independence of the Central Bank and said there is no logic in the current interest rate.
The vice-president and minister of development, industry, trade and services, Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), questioned the high level of interest rates in Brazil on Tuesday (31) and said it was necessary to act for a cheaper cost. of capital in the country.
Hours earlier, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad expressed concern about “an eventual retreat in credit” as he left a meeting with the board of Febraban (Brazilian Federation of Banks).
For Nicola Tingas, chief economist of Acrefi (National Association of Credit, Financing and Investment Institutions), the credit delay is normal given the country’s economic context. He says it is necessary to improve risk conditions, with a well-executed fiscal reform.
“When the economy slows and adjusts, as it is now, credit slows because the risk of default is greater, as we are now seeing it reach record highs. But that doesn’t mean it stops being granted. It will gain greater selectivity, and the institutions work in the niche that has greater knowledge of the customer”, says Tingas.
According to Sérgio Goldenstein, partner and chief economist at Warren Renascença, the market believes that, with inflation projections above target, the Copom will begin to drop the Selic in August, with expectations to reach 11% by the end of the year.
“However, in order to realize this, we accept a scenario of greater tranquility with regard to the fiscal framework and the maintenance of inflation targets for 2024 and 2025”, says the specialist.
Constant demand from the market, the tax reform should get a new chapter of discussion this Wednesday, also with the election for the command of the Congress.
Arthur Lira (PP-AL), who is about to be reappointed to the presidency of the Chamber, said on Tuesday that the Lula government’s intention is to give priority to the issue and vote on the issue within three months .
The debate on the fiscal anchor to replace the spending limit must be opened in a second moment and does not yet have a deadline for deliberation.